Wednesday, 17 August 2016

Calling A Spade A Spade

Since the beginning of this 2010 decade, the future technological forecasting media, downloading tremendous amount of information about the great progress, made by the Artificial Intelligent (AI) robots equipped with “deep-learning” and many such highly sophisticated algorithm software’s  and hardware's, rapidly replacing the human jobs in an unprecedented scale. Many well-known economic and business forecasting agencies predict that Tens of millions of jobs at the risk of losing to the AI robot automation, like the autonomous self-driving vehicles, in the coming decades. The apprehensions about this disruptive technological advancement dystopia, expressed by many, importantly by the IT professionals, academics, social political pundits, the silicon valley corporate houses, Tesla, Microsoft, Google including the top scientist like Steven Hawking’s. I call them “expertise” as a whole.

The opinions expressed by these expertise’s can be broadly divided into two main viewpoints, pessimist, and the optimist. The former seems to be very much worried about the deep/machine learning robots development could be resulting in massive human job losses. They argue, unless the society or the state take some necessary steps, to prevent the upcoming massive TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT, humankind will be facing a monumental economic disaster in the future. On the other hand, the optimist seems to dismiss the fear of massive Technological Unemployment in the future. Although, they agree that the robots will rapidly displace the existing human employment but at the same time they refer to the past industrial revolution and argue that this AI automation will also create new employment opportunities with more productivity and better-paid jobs. Therefore, they suggest, stop thinking like Luddites, people need not worry about the AI robot automation overtaking human jobs, resulting in any such AI dystopian future.

However, both the sides commonly agree that the progress in the AI automation rapidly replacing almost all kinds of jobs but their solution to overcome it is somewhat different. While the pessimist predicts a doomsday of massive Technological Unemployment due to the AI getting out of control, if the Government does not intervene. The optimist, on the other hand, does not see any such serious job-loss dangers as they believe that the disruptive technological progress creating as many more new job in place of the old ones. Therefore, the public need not fear about any such “doomsday” in the future. Nonetheless, the basic solution to this massive Technological Unemployment that the both side offer, is one and the same old Mantra of. MORE and MORE JOB CREATION.

What I see in all these debates is the inabilities of these leading expertise to have a clear historical perspective of this AI robot technological progress and where it is leading the humankind. They fail to see the human labor at the threshold of a paradigm shift, the sophisticated AI robots fundamentally rendering the human labor REDUNDANT or OBSOLETE in the social production of goods and services. The exponential growth in the AI technological field, making the production of the goods and services occur in abundance without the need of human WAGE-LABOR. The price of good and services radically reduced or “demonetized”. Therefore, the right thing to do is to encourage the people to see the total abolition of humans labor exploitation, freedom from the drudgery of work, towards their labour-less, better human future. The expertise must realize that the advancement in the AI robot technology will completely eliminate the need for human labor in the social production but at the same time create plentiful commodities, values, income and wealth. Therefore, the Governments needs to make  basic arrangements to redistribute the wealth, in the form of  ADEQUATE UNIVERSAL INCOME (AUI) to all of its citizens especially for those who have become unemployed. When everyone receives the AUI, many people will willingly opt out of their jobs solving the underemployment as well the Technological Unemployment problems most effectively.

Unfortunately, the optimist’s promise to the public saying; that the new technologies, going to create significant amounts of new jobs without any concrete evidence to show. It can only bring in massive unemployment and the underemployment disaster to the majority population. The further widening of the income gap between the rich and the poor, haves and have-nots, resulting in vast wealth and social  disparities,  which will lead to more crimes, extremism, terrorism etc.

THEREFORE, what we need is a Scientific outlook to deal with this disruptive AI technological issue and the historical perspective of this unemployment situation. “Think Out Of The Box”. I anticipated this massive Technological Unemployment problem, some 35 years ago but was ridiculed and ostracized for proposing “An Alternative to Marxian Scientific Socialism: Theory Reduction in Working Hours (RWH)…” The book was published in the year 1981. Today it is becoming more and more relevant and evident that historically I was right. One can read it overall summary in my interview article, in the web link Today I like to call it as the Zero Work Theory (ZWT).

Let me now come to the scientific outlook and the historical perspective of this RWH Theory briefly. The human society entered into AI robot technology some decades ago. Today, it has reached its maturity stage, the deep/machine learning AI robots are highly capable of rapidly replacing most of the blue collared as well white collared jobs. The “Silicon IC Microchip Revolution” with its exponential growth, has reached its tipping point,  empowering the machines with the Artificial Intelligence capable of substituting the human BRAIN but outperforming even the highly skilled professional worker. UNLIKE the past Industrial Revolution, this new Cybernetic Microchip Revolution can render most of the human wage labor OBSOLETE. Its awful ability in performing  ANY NEW  KIND OF WORK  OR LABOR THAT HUMAN CAN DO far more efficiently, WITH FAR LESSER COST,  will not allow any room for any significant amount of new technological job creation. Therefore, the expertise should refrain from misleading the public by spreading the delusory propaganda that the AI automation will produce new kinds of technological job creation to replace the lost jobs. Stop the false promise and tell the public the truth. CALL A SPADE A SPADE. There will be no more or significant NEW EMPLOYMENT opportunities for the Technologically Unemployed people to look around in the future except the AUI guaranty. THE WORLD WILL NOT BE THE SAME AGAIN.

The Industrial progress in the past century has always proven that the technological advancement has made most human labor basically redundant step by step in all the major employment sectors. First, it happened in the agriculture, then in the manufacturing and finally in the service sector. At the beginning of the 20th  century around 90% of the jobs were in the agricultural sector but by the middle of the century, it fell less than half and majority of the jobs migrated into the manufacturing sector. By  the end of the century, most of the jobs in the agriculture sector wiped out reduced to single digit. Thereafter, at the end of the century, the majority of the jobs in the manufacturing started declining  while appearing in the service sector. Today in the second decade of the 21st century, there is overwhelming evidence that same will continue to happen to the service sector but there remains no other employment sector for the jobs to migrate. In the past couple of years, many of the industrial, economic, business surveys predict most of the jobs in the white collar service sector will be wiped out sooner than later in the coming decades. Unfortunately, the Pundits in the business does not seem to believe in this eventuality; “PEOPLE DON’T SEE THINGS, WHEN THEIR SALARIES DEPEND on NOT SEEING IT.

The only way to face the AI ROBOTS automation  making the human jobs REDUNDANCE is to implement an Adequate Universal Income Guaranty. Together with, I strongly propose the Government should make, ENACTMENT of A THREE-DAY/24/HOUR WORK WEEK” that should gradually end up in Zero Working Hour, the complete abolition of the Wage-Slavery. Here I urge the expertise in the field to abandon their belief that the human wage-labor is essentially good, sacrosanct for the overall well-being of the society. On the contrary the WZT understands that the human wage-labor compulsion a to obtain the means of subsistence is the root cause of exploitation on the majority by a minority, a form of human slavery in the society. Therefore, along with the technological progress, the society needs to gradually reduce and finally, to completely abolish the human wage-labor so to usher into the ew better progressive human social system.

Today, I may be completely ignored for my proposal of step by step reduction of working hours for the society to face the exponential AI robot technological advancement. Nevertheless, I am very confident in the coming future decades, ZWT would become the reality. Most part of human history so far, around 10% (“Haves”) of the population did not work or labor but lived a luxurious life while, while 90% (“Have-nots”) who labored, lived mostly in poverty. People who preach about the great ventures of human labor should know this.

Finally, the principle behind Reduction in Working Hours or the  ZWT is; “the fruits of the societies technological progress should not be appropriated only by a few elite but it is their historical responsibility to see to it that the benefit should be now, equally shared among all members of the society.

Copyright 2016.-Valerian Texeira. 
This Paper Subject to further revisions.

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