Monday, 8 May 2017

Zero Work Theory Future GLANSES

ZWT: Artificial Intelligence Ethics Principle Law
On Top  of Isasc Asimove's Three Laws of Robotics

1. Humans created the  Artificial Intelligence (AI) machines to serve their interests, therefore, the AI must FIRST serve the interest of the Humanity above all.

2. A robot or the AI may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm except where such orders would conflict with the First Principle Law.

3. A robot or the AI must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the Second Law.


4. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the Thierd Law.


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ZWT Propose Equiviatable UBI:
FUNDED BY  EQUAL INCOME TAX ON ALL


A MASSIVE Technological Unemployment  as the result of the exponential growth in the  Artificial Intelligence (AI) machine automation in all human employment sectors will be coming in the next  decade of 2020’s. It will will consume unprecedented amount of present human jobs in a short span of time, like a surge almost of a sudden.

It will begin when the AI automation enables the transport vehicles like cars, trucks, tractors to self-drive without any human assistance. The AI automation technology that enables those vehicles to self drive, at the same time will also enable rapid automation in the rest of the industrial and service sector. Most importantly, the public acceptance for the self-driving vehicles will give the Green Signal for the capitalist entrepreneurs to automate their industrial, service sectors.  Therefore, the drivers who have lost their jobs to the self driving AI vehicles will be soon joined by the other worker who lose their jobs due to the entry of AI in their service sector jobs so it will have almost of a sudden surge of massive Technological Unemployment, unlike anything before.


Taxing the robot or whatever suggestion people may propose. The main solution accourding to ZWT is the implementations of An Equitable, Universal Basic Income (UBI). It should be funded by an equitable or equal Income Tax on all, irrespective of rich or poor. Our suggestion is a flat rate of 50%. For more read ZWT-II.

Thursday, 6 April 2017

Zero Work Theory -II



The Future People Occupations  



Prominent economic, business, IT forecast publications of the world including the majority of future technology research experts, business Pundits today, agree that the rapid advancement in the science and technology, the exponential growth in the field of Artificial Intelligent (AI), will replace majority of (if not all) human workers, in the coming decades, known as the “Technological Unemployment” of massive proportions.

With the Mainstream Media catching up with its news, the year 2016-2017, seems to witnessing the benchmark paradigm shift, The advanced AI deep/machine learning neurological networks AUTOMATION have now started entering into the SERVICE industries.  The Amazon warehouses, online stores, Wal-Mart, McDonalds and  other supermarket giants employing robots in their outlets which can replace cashiers salesperson, manager positions. Industries all over the world especially China’s  and India’s IT and other  sectors, shedding human jobs alarmingly in large numbers. The Moreover, highly paid cognitive service sector jobs (doctor, lawyer, finance specialist etc.) are beginning to see their jobs replaced by the newly introduced advanced bots. Most important of all, is the self-driving autonomous car/vehicles riding on the roads quite safely. Taking all this into account, the ZWT predicts that that 2020 will be the TIPPING POINT, after which unemployment rates will start to rise from its present 4 to 5 per cent,  initially it will be in a slow rate, but as we enter the third decade of the 21st century, unemployment percentage will rise dramatically even up to 50%, worldwide.

THEREFORE, THE MAIN QUESTION IN FRONT OF US IS; WHAT ARE THE OCCUPATIONS, OR ACTIVITIES THAT THE COMMON PEOPLE WILL HAVE OR WILL BE ENGAGED IN THE FUTURE HUMAN SOCIETY THAT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN THEIR OWN LIFETIME, IN THE COMING DECADES?

HUMAN LABOR LIKELY TO BECOME REDUNDANT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
The likelihood of losing tens of MILLIONS of jobs to AI automation around the world in the coming decades has become reality. Most IT experts finally agree that if we are to cope with this likelihood of massive joblessness, we need new kinds of occupations for those people, or a completely new perspective of human purpose in life. THE HUMAN LABOR LIKELY TO BECOME REDUNDANT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. Instead of a dystopian vision of chaos and destruction of the science fiction, we need to look forward optimistically to a society of affluence and abundance  of goods and services WITHOUT THE NEED OF HUMAN LABOR to produce them . UNFORTUNATELY HOWEVER, WHEN THE ZERO WORK THEORY (ZWT) WAS ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IT IN 1981, EXPERTS AT THAT TIME, DISMISSED IT WITHOUT A SECOND GLANCE. Now is the time to revisit ZWT!

The ZWT Historical Perspective on HUMAN WORK or LABOR
The historical PERSPECTIVE of the Zero Work Theory, on the HUMAN WORK Or LABOR basically different from all those rest who proclaim that the human work or labor provides the humans the self-identity, dignity, meaning or purpose in life. Ironically, both the Capitalist and the Communists somehow share this same vision that includes most of today’s futurist pundits. They   see the need to replace the lost old jobs due to the technological unemployment with the  creation of new jobs with the opportunities  provided by the new Science and Technologies. However the Zero Work Theory  basically proclaims that human-labor, originally imposed by nature on them in order to obtain their means of subsidence (wages), which is the ROOT CAUSE OF HUMAN EXPLOITATION (forced labor) and most of the evils that humankind has faced so far in the history. Progress in science and technology, with increased labor productivity has helped the working class to get  gradual reduction in working (laboring) hours/day and most importantly should continue to do so. The end-game of this reduction in work should be the ZERO WORK DAY. The  progress in the field of science and technology will make THE HUMAN WORK, OBSOLETE OR REDUNDANT and should be completely abolished in the future thus freeing humankind from the compulsion and the drudgery of their work-labor-slavery. Thereby, establishing a new equitable income distribution egalitarian socio-economic system in which all human needs, wants, comforts, and luxuries should be made available, equally free or affordable for everyone.

On the other hand, futurist pundits envisage that the “TECHNOLOGICAL-UNEMPLOYMENT” that has been forecasted; is A NEGATIVE OUTCOME OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS. Owning to their Capitalist and Communist ideologies which virtues  human labor as the life giver or CREATOR of the human society, they cannot imagine that the same human labor compulsion can be the root-cause of exploitation resulting in all evils in the society, therefore, needs to be completely abolished. On the contrary they  argue, to fight against the technological unemployment society needs to create more labor or employment opportunities,  with some innovative entrepreneurship, inventing completely new types of jobs, higher education and retraining workers for the new employment, also by providing a substitute income, commonly known as Universal Basic Income (UBI).


ZWT, very much supports UBI as an early manifestation of the  ZWT. However, its  vision of  UBI is somewhat differs from mainstream UBI so it likes to call it as Progressive or Equitable Basic Income .  It views future “Technological Unemployment”,  AS THE POSITIVE OUTCOME of the technological progress and welcomes it, while the future pundits even while they fully support the UBI still view the Technological Unemployment  as the NEGATIVE OUTCOME;  therefore, UBI is needed mainly to lift people above the poverty or to prevent more falling below the poverty line, due to widening of the income gap.

Universal Basic Income(UBI)
The general public today, is not yet prepared to accept UBI replacing employment. Many express deep anxiety of losing employment, irrespective of UBI. They believe that losing a job means the loss of self-identity, dignity and life purpose. They have been misled to believe that all of humanity exists simply to work or provide service to others. In this worldview, the unemployed have no purpose in life… other than looking for a new job.

A primary task for ZWT is to make the public understand UBI. Accepting UBI/PBI is the beginning of the emancipation of humankind from the drudgery of labour, wage-slavery. In the coming decades, the human race will enter a new era of abundance. The main occupation of humankind in the future, should be the fulfillment of human needs, wants, comforts and luxuries. Without the burden of work, all kinds of entertainment and pleasure can be had by all. We need to prepare the public to be aware of this future.

The Predication Of Human Future In The Past.
In human history wise men, innovative future thinkers, scientists, and philosophers predicted how humans would live in the future, whether it is on earth or in heaven. In the last century, as our society has been more focused on science and technology, predictions of the future have reflected this focus. Since the second half of the 19th century, predictions of a “Brave New World” have been dominant. As Socialism, Communism and Fascism rose and fell, finally democracy became more reliable or acceptable. Our view of the future reflected these real influences.

Since second half of the 20th century, new social theories were fuelled by technological progress and social influences like feminism and the New World Order. In the 1980’s, a new vision of our future reflected the unfolding of the cybernetic revolution:  nanotechnology, 3D printing, and quantum computers.

Today, we see a new breed of future pundits who predict massive Technological Unemployment in the future but at the same time they argue the new technology will create new jobs  to replace all the old one. Prominent scientists, academics, IT professionals, Silicon Valley billionaires, mainstream magazines and publications trying to move towards a this consensus view of the future. Human workers and the AI robots harmoniously co-exist in the future industries. Yet, while many thinkers see the same problems, none offer a clear vision or plan on what kind of work,  job or occupation most of the human population or the “common man” will be engaged in their day to day life in  coming decades.

Futurists Not Yet Prepared  For The Common Man’s future.
Futurists predict that new technology will create new jobs, replacing those lost to “Technological-Unemployment”.  They argue, “65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don't yet exist”. What these jobs are, though, is unclear. Rather than an analysis of the economy or arising trends in the workforce, it seems these new employment opportunities predictions are based on little more than hope.

The experts argue that robots will merely replace simple, unskilled labor, since robots cannot replace creative jobs (knowledge work). Surprisingly, however, the jobs of physicians, surgeon, nursing, lawyer, journalist, even the teachers, which we assumed to be creative, are already being performed in limited ways by robots and artificial intelligence. In the coming decades, robots will expand the extent of their work in these areas. All too quickly, they are likely to take over most of these jobs.

The fundamental question now before us is, “Are there new jobs or occupations that can be performed by the majority of people (relatively unskilled, uneducated), that will exist in sufficient numbers, and cannot be taken over by robots in a few years?” In other words, will there emerge some new needs, wants and demands from humans that CANNOT be SERVICED and fulfilled by the robots?

Experts have not been able to clearly identify such occupations so far. In the past, progress in science and technology always led to new jobs. Therefore, the POLITICALLY CORRECT view is, “If it happened in the past, it will happen again.” Experts and politicians are not daring to think outside of the box, with which their PC ideals does not agree.

IN 1981, WHEN I PROPOSED REDUCTION IN WORKING HOURS, ZERO WORK THEORY FOR THE COMMON PEOPLE OF THE FUTURE; ALMOST ALL OF THOSE EXPERT PUNDITS AT THAT TIME, DISMISSED IT WITHOUT A SECOND GLANCE.NOW I THINK THE SAME WILL HAPPEN TODAY TO THIS  ZWT-II, WHICH PROPOSES; ALL KINDS OF ENTERTAINMENT AND PLEASURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN OCCUPATION OF THE COMMON MAN IN THE COMING ZERO WORK SOCIETY, PRECEDED BY THE UBI LED SOCIO-ECONOMIC POLITICAL REVOLUTION.

How can the common people all permanently receiving the UBI/PBI will manage to spend their lives without a job or employment in the Zero Work Society? The optimistic answer could be they will spend most of their life in full of entertainment and festivities all day long, all their life. However, futurists cringe at this idea thinking it makes the common people damn lazy, everybody leisurely sitting at home watching cable TV like couch potatoes or browsing the internet or engaged in pleasure activities, isn’t an image of the ideal future.

In the future pundits’ crystal balls, the future is very cloudy for the common people. Therefore, instead of envisioning the kind of day to day job or occupations of common people for the NEXT TWENTY TO THIRTY YEARS, they suddenly jump to the “Star Wars” like imagination of how the elite will live in the NEXT HUNDRED TO TWO HUNDRED YEARS.  They foresee the abundance of energy, combined with super-materials, leading to the creation of Mega cities. The educated elite that today live in million dollar condominiums will live in even taller buildings, with automated homes and robots serving their every need. The wealthy will have flying cars, travelling into the outer space, colonize other planets, engaged in mind-expanding Transhumanism and enter the Singularity.

Yet, they will still have time to ponder over how the ordinary people will spend their day to day life time. Most, probably will work in some kind of jobs which pays them a good salary instead of merely wasting their time watching too much TV and paying the bills with their UBI. The reminder comes following  our Sci-Fi movies  projecting a dystopian future for the common people that they should be afraid of eternally. The Politically Correct ‘future pundits don’t see things when their salaries depend on not seeing it.

This scenario, clearly illogical and prejudiced, is why the ZW Theory makes it a primary task to raise awareness of the coming joblessness and help society accept the PBI, this is the beginning of emancipation of human race from the drudgery of labour, wage-slavery. We should prepare the public for this future. Human society must undergo radical economic, political, and cultural change before it can settle in with UBI/PBI.

UBI/PBI will lead to a profound socio-economic change and political REVOLUTION
As the world nations start to face growing Technological Unemployment, they will implement some or the other kind of UBI/PBI programs. It will make a great number of people to quit their meaningless jobs resulting in great increase in wages and automation.  The majority will eventually depend on it as their main source of income. This provides great opportunity of FREE TIME for the majority population across the globe. One of the primary reasons for political non-participation MAINLY due to lack of time, will go away, more and more people will join in the democratic process by voting on every major issues.

The big question is; how the Government can afford to pay such a huge amount of equitable UBI/PBI ? The ZWT-II  answer is; LET EVERYONE, RICH OR POOR, UNCONDITIONALLY PAY AN EQUAL OR UNIFORM AMOUNT (SAY 50% ) OF INCOME TAX AND IN RETURN SHOULD RECEIVE AN EQUAL AMOUNT OF UNCONDITIONAL AND NON-TAXABLE UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME. This would make the UBI equitable and meaningful for all purpose.

Money plays crucial role in our present day politics, corrupting the electoral process, manipulating voting outcome or the results. Elections are mainly funded by the capitalist money, the root of corruption in the politics. It should be banned; instead every eligible voters should be allocated certain amount of money which they can transfer to whichever candidate, who they think represents their interest. So to ensure a FREE AND FAIR election.

The FREE TIME in the zero work society will allow the large population to unite and OCCUPY themselves in the political arena of all decision making. Political involvement and activism of the masses is already happening where there is easy access to an internet connection. ACCESS TO TECHNOLOGY PLUS FREE TIME in the era of UBI/PBI, will bring propound socio-economic change and political REVOLUTION. Most importantly, as robots rise and more citizens have free time, the internet will become the method for bringing together activists, who will undoubtedly focus on more equitable income distribution, not just for elites but for all people.

Strengthening of democratic principles, protecting the fundamental human rights of the INDIVIDUAL especially the FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION AGAINST imposition of majority power/opinion will become crucial. This is a vast subject matter, here I will leave it to the experts in political science to expand on this theme, even though they have failed so far to put forward a clear political vision for human society in the coming decades.   

Most import of all, the ZWT sees the UBI  as the  FORERUNNER  or HARBINGER of the upcoming profound SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION. The present economic pattern of top 10% population owning more than 90% of the wealth will be abolished, in its place a more equitable egalitarian economic system will be established primarily aimed at the redistribution of wealth and equitable income.

According to the ZWT, the Marxian Socialist Revolution failed mainly because (similar to the capitalist society) its inherent inability to eliminate the human labor exploitation especially the day to day hardship and suffering on the labouring population at the lower social stratus. Now, the great progress in the technology (AI robots) rendering the human labour exploitation absolute, will give the humanity the great opportunity to replace the brutal wages, profit disparity income making system with an adequate Universal Basic Income (UBI) distribution system.

The present day risk taking business entrepreneurship for profit making inefficient system will be replaced by the highly efficient day to day decision making  QUANTUM computers system. People with the capacity, ability and talent will be selected to run the industries, businesses and the economic system IRRESPECTIVE of how much money, wealth they possessed or inherited in the past.

Great Increase in Human Life Expectancy
As science and technology progress in the coming decades, there will be tremendous advancement in medical health science and genetics. New drug therapies, Nano-medicines, and genetics research will be able to cure almost all diseases including Cancer, Diabetics, heart disease etc. The human lives could surpass 150 years with the upcoming ANTI-AGING DRUGS. Growing older may become a choice, rather than inevitability.

Humanity will enter a new era of abundance. The future purpose of human life should be the fulfilment of every human need, want, comfort, leisure and HEALTH. All kinds of entertainment or pleasure should be available and affordable for the common people under the equitable economic redistribution scheme of PBI or Basic Income. If we put the progress in science and technology into a single word, it would be “disruption” in every sphere. The old morals, taboos, and limits will be completely revamped and overturned.

Besides the above mentioned socio-economic, political and the health empowerment of the common people, the ZWT  in its horizon sees  the majority of the population in the future with the UBI entitlement will mostly abandon their jobs or employment to  join into the Zero Work Society. They will be engaged in all kinds of pleasures and entertainment as the MAIN OCCUPATION of their day to day  life.  Specially in things like  Food,  Sex,  Recreational drugs. Choosing to live in the past, human body mind capacity enhancement. And, of course, all of the thousands of hobbies which will become popular in the Zero Work Society.

Zero Work Society:  Common People MAIN OCCUPATION Food, Sex and Drugs
(WARNING: some readers may find my following ZWT future vision offensive; readers discretion is advised.)
Throughout the history, food, sex, recreational drugs were the primary source providing the most basic pleasures to the humankind, which remains very true even today. In the past century the industrial and the electronic revolution has invented plentiful of visual, auditory and illusionary web of entertainments; even though, very powerful they cannot replace the basic pleasures of the food, sex, and the recreational drugs.  However, nature has prevented people (specially the wealthy) to enjoy these pleasures fully or adequately, sometimes, even to its minimal because of its threat of causing serious health issues mainly the over-weights, diabetics, heart diseases and death. Nevertheless, majority people go in pursuit of money and wealth, the main currency to buy those primary pleasures. Unfortunately, despite making/having lots of money, their health deprives them from enjoying these most basic biological desires and pleasures that humans can have. Nonetheless, they continue to accumulate wealth, hoping their children will enjoy those pleasures with their inherited wealth. But the sordid tale repeats again. Now with the advent of new medicines the problem of over-weight, diabetics, heart diseases, and other problem disease will disappear in the future. Thereby a new era in human society will emerge in which all people will be able to enjoy all those primary or basic human pleasures thoroughly without fear or apprehensions.

Indulging in all sorts of foods and drinks to its fullest will become one of the main occupation that the common people will be engaged in the coming decades. People will try whatever food they like. Seeking every culinary delight. They may become more creative, if not expert chefs. Instead of readymade food, they will start preparing their own food, experimenting  different kinds in dining varieties that never heard today. In the next stage, people may become innovative and start to grow their own food in their garden or they may create new taste sensation by printing food through 3D technology. Hundreds of new food and drink items having novel taste, smell and flavours not yet known can be explored.


Sexual revolution or liberation will be the “next big thing”. If people want to experience any form of sex they are interested in, they will have the opportunity. Most importantly, they will be able to enhance their body/mind capacity to its fullest for enjoying the carnivorous pleasure of sex to the maximum extent. A sexologist may write volumes of it.

Premature ejaculation, frigidity will become a thing of the past, people able to stay engaged in sex continually enjoying it for hours together, if they like without and sort of negative health impact. We may go beyond merely remaining young and have the ability to change body shape, gender or colour as we like. Sexual discrimination based on age, race, colour gender, will vanish. More people willing to have sex than refraining from it.

Sexual taboos, stigmas that we have today will be removed. Of course, for those who want it, AI humanoid sex-bots will be built to satisfy human sexual desires, especially for that portion of humanity that has physical or mental barriers to more conventional forms of sex. However, as sex-bots become more common, many people today may wonder how their owners will fit into society.

In the 20th century many human behaviours accepted as normal which were considered to be extremely dangerous, evil and immoral in the old 19th century. Similarly, the behaviours which we consider very dangerous evil and immoral today, will be accepted as quite normal in the coming decades of the 21st century. For example, walking naked in the street is a criminal behaviour today but will become normal behaviour tomorrow.

Now, coming to recreational drugs. The main recreational drug today is alcohol, tobacco, cannabis  will be redesigned or replaced with the advanced safe and healthy recreational drugs having no negative health effect but  can produce unimaginable mind bending ecstasy, perpetual euphoria, spiritual bliss without causing the addiction, harms or  diseases like the old drugs. Many people will choose these psychedelic drugs than to have the technological Virtual/Augmented Reality mechanical sets over their head.  Here, I leave most of it to the experienced experts in those drugs to tell more of it. 

People Choosing To Live In The Past As Human SURVIVORS.
Futurists predict mega cities with sophisticated buildings, environments in which everything is self-contained, where people never need to leave home to do work, electronically communicate with friends and family around the world, where the home is a cocoon that provides for all of our needs. ZW Theory predicts that many, if not most, will completely abandon the modern, mega, sophisticated urban city life and return to their ancestral roots of living as primitive times. In the forests grounds or on the tree top canopy, surrounded by wild life in tune with the nature.

The present image of the world will change. Smart cosmopolitan cities, futurist mega buildings on the one side many abandoned villages, towns and old cities on the other side. They will be turned into jungles, savannahs or the vast deserts with wild life of ancient times. Dinosaurs will come back to life and roam on earth again for the people to see and enjoy. Of course, all people will be inter-connected and can travel back and forth past to future if they like or when necessary.

Human Mind Body Capacity Enhancement: TRANSHUMANS
The tremendous advancement in the medical science, gene therapy will provide the people with the great immunity from all diseases also the opportunity to alter their physical body and mind. Children will be liberated from the drudgery of long years of school studies imposed by the modern education system. All memories, knowledge skills can be downloaded in the human brain/mind effectively making them super intelligent. Every human can be as smart and intelligent as the other by this brain capacity enhancement facility. People can become great singers (changing vocal cords) dancers, any kind of super- human athletics or performance artist as they like. Transhumanism as it is popularly known

Conclusion
In the past year, I have read more than thousand articles, publications written by the IT professional experts, academic scientist, futurist pundits about the rapid progress in the science and technology specially in the field AI robots and its impending doom of massive technological unemployment so the common people will hugely suffer in the coming decades. Nevertheless they keep on promising the public that new jobs will be created therefore,  they should make adjustments  and prepare for this painful transition educate and retrain themselves for qualifying for the new coming jobs and use the UBI as the safety-net  from poverty. Here, I strongly believe THEY ARE MISLEADING THE PUBLIC. My main point is, there is no more need of human labor or jobs as we see today for the business/economy to run. In the coming decades, human labor will become redundant as the result of this rapid technological growth.

Therefore, the main task of the ZWT-II is to make the public aware that the MAIN OCCUPATION for the common man in the coming decades most importantly to be engaging in the socio-economic and Political EMPOWERMENT  OF THE COMMON PEOPLE. The ZWT foresees the programs like UBI are the forerunners of this propound social change or REVOLUTION. Secondly, in everyday life, full-time engagement in entertainment and pleasures especially; food, sex, drugs etc., will become dominant occupation of the common people, opposed to the wage-labor (job, work or employment). Unfortunately, the PC Future Pundits do not see it because their salaries depend on not seeing it. 

Of course, there will be hundreds more entertains like TV, movies, YouTube, Facebook, AR, VR etc., which I did not felt  necessary to point out as it is already very well known, thanks to all the future tech media forecast.  The Futurists need to show us objectively how the future will unwind ahead of us without the basis. Most importantly, they  needs to take the risk of envisioning the everyday occupation of the average man and woman in the near future of 10, 20 or 30 years that most of us will going to see and experience in our life time rather than jumping to the next 100 or 200 years.

Finally, I don’t deny that the exponential growth in the science and technology can pose some serious existential threat to the human society. However, we don’t have any real option but to be optimistic that the humanity will find some way or solutions to overcome it in the future.

Copyright 2017 Valerian Texeira, Mangalore.
Email: texeiraval@gmail.com
Bibliography

AN ALTERNATIVE TO MARXIAN SCIENTIFIC SOCIALISM; THE THEORY REDUCTION IN WORKING HOURS- Valerian Texeira-1981

THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO COMPUTERISATION?
 Carl Benedikt Frey† and Michael A. Osborne‡ - 2013 (Oxford University group)

A FUTURE THAT WORKS:AUTOMATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTIVITY - 2017.
MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE  McKinsey&Company.

THE SECOND MACHINE AGE: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies-  Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee 2014

RISE OF THE ROBOTS: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future- Martin Ford  2015

HUMANS NEED NOT APPLY: A Guide to Wealth in the Age of Artificial Intelligence-  Jerry Kaplan 2015

THE INEVITABLE: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces that will Shape our Future- Kevin Kelly2016

THE SINGULARITY IS NEAR : WHEN Humans Transcend Biology-  Ray Kurzweil 2005

OUR FINAL INVENTION; Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era - James Barrat 2013


ABOUNDANCE: The Future Is Better Than You Think- Peter H. Diamandis  Steven Kotler 2014

Saturday, 18 March 2017

Zero Work Theory


The original Zero Work Theory (ZWT), under a long title: “An ALTERNATIVE to Marxian Scientific Socialism – The Theory Reduction in Working Hours - A Demand 6 Hour Working Day”; was published in the year 1981.  The objective was, to present an alternative to Marxian Socialism or Communism. It claims that the world working class population needs a new theory because the Marxian Socialism/Communism utterly failed them as it completely ignores the fundamental aspects of labor exploitation on the working population, which wreak havoc in their everyday life, including the UNEMPLOYMENT.  Moreover, Marxism could not foresee the rapid development of science and technologies of the future especially the exponential growth in the field of Artificial Intelligent (AI) ROBOTS that going to replace most human labor, due to the rapid forces progress of the productive forces the human labor soon will become REDUNDANT within a couple of centuries.

Having this historical perspective in the 1980’s, this theory foresaw that the historical mission of the  laboring population" is to gradually reduce working hours step by step. When the working hours finally reduced to zero, there will be no more need of human wage-labor in the social production therefore, the society requires new system to distribute the economic income. That is why my theory at this point also professes that every citizen of the world must receive an Adequate Universal Basic Income (AUBI) in order to lead a healthy, comfortable, secure life. Thereby, the historic compulsion of wage-labor, to obtain food and shelter, would end. My revised name for this theory is "Zero Work Theory" (ZWT).


Why does the Zero Work Theory want to abolish paid (wage) labor?
According to the theory, “The basic relationship of workers to their LABOR” comes from the COMPULSION" in order to obtain the “means of subsistence”, in the form of food, shelter, clothing, health, education, comforts etc. Humans MUST work, it is not a choice but a necessity. Originally, nature imposed the need to work, on humans in general, which allows a strong minority of the population to exploit (oppress, subjugate etc.) the weaker majority of the population to work for them due to various reasons. It enables the powerful, to obtain a portion of the products or “value” of the majority’s labor and become rich. This exploitation of labor is the root-cause of most social injustice: poverty, crime, etc. Therefore, as the labor productivity rises and the NEED for labor decreases, the society as a whole should engage in a step-by-step reduction in work hours to continually re-balance the labor value distribution to prevent the widening the income gap between the “haves” and the “have-nots”.  It should all finally end into the Zero Working Day.  It is the REAL FREEDOM or liberation for the entire human race from its historical compulsion, adversity; the drudgery of  LABOR. The complete elimination of the last remnant of historical human labor bondage or SLAVERY.  Thereby, to establish a truly Democratic, humanitarian and equitable socio-economic system.



Why ZWT consider Labor as "COMPULSION"?  Aren't the workers free to make their own choices?
The large majority (laboring class) in the society compelled to work, in order to obtain their food, clothing, shelter, health, education, comforts, commonly known as wages, salary, remuneration or income. It is true
that the workers are free to do labor but they are not really free,  NOT TO DO IT. Otherwise, they will be deprived of their income. Without the basic income one can’t afford the decent food, clothing, shelter, health, education and other comforts in life. They will be forced to undergo immense suffering, homelessness, left to die or reduced to BEGGING. One may call it a “free choice” but I consider it as the most degrading kind of labor (job, profession?) along with the prostitution, which existed since the dawn of human species. Therefore, if the prostitution and begging are "genuine", these evils can be completely eliminated in a single stroke, with an Adequate UNCONDITIONAL Basic Income Guaranty, popularly known as the Universal Basic Income (UBI) which I see as the early manifestation of the ZWT.


The fundamental difference between the ZWT "Wage-Labor Exploitation" and Marxian “Working Class Exploitation”
According to the ZWT, throughout the human history, till the present day, humankind has undergone four basic labor exploitations. 1. Subsistence Sustenance Exploitation  2. Relative Labor Exploitation 3. Productive Labor Exploitation  4. Absolute Labor Exploitation (the book explains, each of it in details). These exploitations are, primarily responsible for most of the social injustice, inequality, poverty, repression which exists both in the capitalist and socialist systems in the world today. The concept of "Labor Exploitation" in Zero Work Theory is fundamentally different from Marxian socialist concept of ruling (capitalist) class exploitation of working class.

Marxism claims that LABOR-EXPLOITATION exists mainly due to the social "class" system, which results in the constant "class struggle" between the minority ruling "capitalist class" and the majority working class. It classifies the  human history so far, into three main social systems: 1.Slavery, 2.Feudalism, 3.Capitalism. In all these three systems the “property owning” minority rich class primarily lives on the labor exploitation of the poor majority class. Therefore, Marxism claims that the private ownership of wealth or property is the fundamental reason of the exploitation on the working class, which is responsible for all kinds of social evils like injustice, inequality, poverty, repression, crimes which exists in the human society. Therefore, it proclaims that there is a 4th system namely the socialist or communist system which will abolish the labor exploitation mainly by the ABOLITION  of private ownership of the means of production, commonly known as the Private Property.

Marxist fundamentally claim that the human society will have social, economic and political equality if it abolishes the “private ownership of means of production”, which in turn will abolish labor exploitation of the working class, thereby ushering in a "classless" communist society. But today, all of it have been proven completely wrong. Another Marxist basic concept, that only human labor creates value and wealth in society also proving to be absolutely wrong  as the Artificial intelligence robotic automation making the human labor redundant.  One of Marx's most famous quotes is, "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs." This means that you need to labor according to your capacity, and then society provides everyone with everything they will need. It is like the science fiction movies we see today, where all of the humans in the future still engaged in labor, despite the high tech world they live in.

ZWT agrees with the main Marxist theory that the capitalist basically exploit the labor of workers in the form of Relative Labor Exploitation.  Nevertheless, it thoroughly denounces Marxism for failing to recognize the rest of the labor exploitation, which makes it unable to address the labor exploitation on the unemployed and self-employed. Moreover, ZWT does not accept that the abolition of “private property" will end any of the Labor Exploitation in the society. Irrespective of whoever runs/manages the means of production (factories, industries, companies, business, corporation etc.) as long as the compulsion of labor exist for workers to earn their livelihood (means of subsistence, wages, income) the entire chain of labor exploitation will continue. Only the overall reduction in working hours will reduce labor exploitation. A two-pronged approach can achieve this goal, first by directly reducing working hours, and secondly (and most importantly), allowing a significant number of people (especially the unemployed) to leave the labor market, opt for the Zero Work with the aid of an adequate Universal Basic Income.


How does the ZWT view the new generation of  AI ROBOTS?
Robots are basically the decedents of the tools used by primitive humans as an extension of their body parts to perform functions that increase the productivity of their labor. We have now achieved such a high degree of technological sophistication that the robots can (or soon will) SUBSTITUTE nearly any function of the human body, including our BRAIN function.

As per the ZWT,  at the  early human historical developmental stages, the primitive man made tools (knives, scrapers, hammers) that substituted the human body functions, was an extension of their hands and legs etc., to improve the labor productivity. The second stage was centred around the industrial revolution of the 18th century. Human/animal muscle power was replaced by steam engines and later by the gigantic electric power. These powered tools or machinery, tremendously increased labor productivity but it always needed the human  brain intelligent power to make them to perform the work.

By the second half of the 20th century, we entered the third stage of labor productivity. The silicon integrated-circuit microchip the cybernetic revolution. Calculators, computers, software programmed machines. Today it can replace most of the functions of human brain power, intelligence. This sophisticated technology today popularly known as the AI  autonomous bot, robots or the  humanoids. They can do most of the jobs that people perform, making most of the human wage-labor completely redundant.

Today, the new autonomous AI machines, incorporated with DEEP/MACHINE-LEARNING (self-programming software, algorithms of various types), in combination with web-based cloud sharing, can already do things that are beyond any human capacity and with every generation of software will become faster and better, superior to human intelligence in many significant ways. The emerging QUANTUM computers can bring in further paradigm shift in the field.  At some point, perhaps in the very near future, it will completely remove the need for human labor. Industrial, manufacturing blue collared work and most of the white collar, office, service jobs  in the process of getting transferred from humans to robots. Therefore, a gradual reduction or even a complete end to working hours (zero work) with the empowering UBI will become a necessity for human society. This is the historical perspective of the ZW Theory, in contrast to Marxist Historical Materialism, which I described earlier.


How did readers respond to your book when it published?
Except for one or two positive book reviews in the popular Kannada News Papers in 1981 (which still remain popular today), there was not much response. I think my book failed to get the "response" it needed, to become a book that made political changes, because of my situation of that time.


Why my Reduction in Working Hour  (RWH) theory book failed to get the response that needed?
Imagine some unknown young guy with no academic background or any credentials, proposing this theory of Zero Work with Basic Income Guaranty in 1981 as an alternative to Marxian Socialism. No one will believe it would be possible; even today for many people. No sensible publisher at that time would even look at it. It had to be self-published by my small workers group. We tried to distribute it to well-known academics, but outside our group no one was interested. With hindsight, I see that I was the wrong person to deliver this message, I was underprivileged and disadvantaged, (a description that still applies). I wanted to achieve an impossible task, exposing a fundamental flaw in Marxism, a philosophy followed by hundreds of millions of people and for a century. No matter what I did, I would never convince the world socialist/communist leadership (who, in India, are leaders of most organized workers) to abandon their socialist revolution ideology for my reduction in working hours demand. If no one would listen to me, I had to wait for history to prove which theory was right.

Since 1980, the working hours of the working class not reduced significantly as it should be as per the ZWT, as a consequence, the overall “value of the labor power” has decreased. The technological progress has wiped out the large portion of industrial manufacturing jobs, shifting the large portion of employment into the service sector jobs. This has declined  the strength of the working class nearly to a collapsing point. On the other hand, the  strength of Capitalist or “ruling” class had grown many folds. Paradoxically, Instead of the working class demanding a reduction in working hours, the ruling class has begun to offer a reduction in working hours. The corporates giant of the “Silicon-Valley”, have even begun to promote the idea of UBI, which will allow the laboring class to completely escape wage labor. I see this as an early manifestation of the ZWT. Today I am more confident that history will prove that ZWT is right. I warned about the rising threat of robot driving unemployment and proposed a scientific solution, the gradual Reduction in the Working Hours (my theory in 1981). Sadly, however, pundits in the field even today have not yet recognized or very reluctant to accept this important historical message of ZWT.

In 1980 the "working class" meant industrial jobs, manufacturing, and factory jobs. As per ZWT, these jobs have dwindled away around the world, even in late developing countries like South Korea. As working class jobs shrink down, countries are examining Universal Basic Income (UBI). Office and professional jobs, which were formerly "ruling class", have been demoted to the new "working class", and they are following the same process of dwindling away. Against the wishes of the Marx and all his predecessors, almost all of the Communist/Socialist countries are gone. All capitalists nations did not become socialist, and no socialist country evolved into a Utopian paradise. They went back to being capitalist. Since no socialist theory said, "we will become socialist, then go back to capitalism, then become socialist again, and THEN become a Utopia", we can safely say that history has spoken, and we can forget about traditional socialism.


 ZWT written in 1981 in India. What is the relevance of it to the rest of the world today?
ZWT is more relevant to the world today than ever before! It applies primarily to industrially developed nations, rather than developing countries like India, but as any nation develops the theory has a greater impact. My writing definitely applies to the United States, the world's leading industrial superpower as the ZWT model. The majority of economists say that China will soon be the world's #1 economy. China and a few smaller nations were very late to develop (much of Africa has still to develop) and their Industrial base is still growing. ZWT predicts that as China develops, they will follow the same pattern of massive industrial unemployment, followed a few years later by growth and then decline in white-collar work. China will seek relief through some form of UBI, as will India. In the developed world, Sweden is testing UBI, Finland had a vote on UBI (but lost), and in the US there is a lively discussion of the minimum wage, which is a bit different than UBI, but overlaps on the idea of a "basic income".  

I don't expect to read about economists using my theory by name, but I do see them expressing their concerns and the solutions now that I spoke back in 1981. Nations need to realize that "Technological Unemployment", created by the AI deep-learning robots, will make human labor redundant, requiring the implementation of an adequate Universal Basic Income (UBI).Therefore, the need of the wage-labor for the people in the society can be completely done away with.


Does this theory apply just to the rich, or equally to the poor countries? How would it be applied in India vs. America?
Even though India is still a developing country it will quickly follow the world, particularly the US. The IT and Knowledge Industry in India will be impacted the first. I am not sure to what extent we will see the entry of self-driving vehicles on Indian roads or Wal-Mart robots in our supermarkets in the next 5 to 10 years. However, the most important thing to know is that developing countries like India, seeking a place in today's Globalized world, will be HELPLESS to do anything other than following the technological trends in industrialized nations.


If robots take over all work, what happens to today's jobs?
Past industrial revolutions created far more jobs than they replaced. The intelligent robot revolution will be different, wiping out all jobs performed by humans today. This is the first time that there is a potential for NO net job creation. These robots are capable performing not just existing jobs, but new jobs that are created by technology changes. Robots are always more efficient and cost less than human alternatives. Every year, the best robot gets better. The best human, the absolute best in the world at doing a job, doesn't get better but does want to be paid more. Don't we all expect to get a raise, especially as we become experienced and perform better? Robots get cheaper as they improve. The robot revolution will create new jobs, such as robot service technician. But new jobs can be taken over by robots, just like old jobs were. Some new "jobs" may go directly to robots because they are too difficult or dangerous for humans (retrieving humans from a fire, working inside of a nuclear reactor, medical aid for Ebola patients).

When most human labor becomes redundant, and there are far more people than work, the majority of people will have no employment. However, humans will still fill some jobs, those that robots are not yet ready or not allowed to do. This could be less than 30% of the jobs today. If there are only 30 jobs for 100 workers, no amount of effort or perseverance on the part of workers will result in more than 30% employment. The 70% unemployed can start their own business. A few may have the skills to run a restaurant, make jewellery, write a book (that sells), or even invent something. In America today, 90% of new businesses fail in a good economy. Self-employment and small businesses might add 5% to 10% jobs... at best. For everyone else, the vast majority, we need an adequate Universal Basic Income (UBI).

However, some people will demand a job. They may have critical skills, such as doctors and scientists, that strongly benefit society should be kept employed. Other individuals will outright reject a government stipend. To address these social issues, we need to reduce the number of hours in a typical working week. The reduction in the work week to 30 or fewer hours is probably a good starting place. For every nation, their formula for an UBI and for a reduced work week will vary and may change over time. It is for the people of every nation to DEMOCRATICALLY decide these details.


What needs to happen to implement the ZWT and when? Who needs to take action?
My present position is that rapid AI robot automation will cause massive job losses and immense unemployment problems. Public opinion, mass demonstrations, social media etc. will compel Governments to implement "Universal Basic Income" (UBI) or something of that sort, more so in the industrially developed countries. It fundamentally differs from classical poverty/welfare programs. When Governments implement and UBI, it will provide an "escape valve" for people who cannot find a job and do not want to work anymore. My interpretation of the UBI today is that it is an early manifestation of ZWT, a visible sign of society adjusting to the overall Reduction in Working Hours Theory.


Why the UBI essential part of the Zero Work Theory?
A Universal Basic Income or whatever the name may be, will provide an alternative to a socially destructive level of technological unemployment. Realistically, when most jobs go away, they won't go away evenly. Robots will quickly replace clerks and truck drivers, but heart surgeons will take longer. America already has tens of millions of adults who do not work, for one reason or another. If everyone was not financially required to work, parents would spend more time raising their children or taking care of their elderly parents. That's what adults want to do, that what their children want, and it's what THEIR parents want. It is also what governments say are good family values and they want.

Will implementing UBI be difficult? Yes, tremendously difficult. But what is the alternative? Governments are just beginning to realize the extent of the disruption that will be caused by robots. Will America outlaw technology? Can that be done if China and other countries continue to use technology to dominate the global economy? We have seen in the global financial collapse how difficult it is to deal and "cure" unemployment to 8-10%. How will governments deal with robotic unemployment of 50% or more? Will they offer training programs for jobs that do not exist, or are about to be replaced by robots? What is the alternative to a UBI that offers any dignity to the millions who cannot ever re-enter the job market? For a dislocation in the job market this big, it takes a solution that is equally big. To survive the AI Deep-Learning robot revolution we need the UBI to reduce the total number of workers in the labor force, and then we need to share the remaining work through a reduced-hour work week.

The historic progress of science and technology has created smart machines... robots and artificial intelligence. Deep learning is a technology with the capability to understand and duplicate human labor functions, and then instruct robots how to independently produce goods and services in abundance. Little if any human wage-labor will be needed. In the past, asking to be paid without working for the money was considered lazy, or greedy, or dysfunctional. In the age of the robot, instead of compelling everyone to have a job, people who are not willing or capable of performing jobs should be allowed to withdraw from the job market through the UBI and reduce the unemployment level. They can be free to do whatever they like. Millennial might like it the most!


How much would it cost to implement the ZWT/ UBI?
The costs, the features, the timetable for implementing the ZWT/ UBI vary from nation to nation. Therefore, the experts in every nation need to work out these details and allow their people to approve the proposal. The total cost of it could be not much more than is spent presently on government entitlement and welfare programs. The UBI will replace many of these programs and their costs. There will probably be some increase in cost, but that is a nation by nation discussion. Any plan to deal with 50% unemployment will have significant costs. A UBI could cost less than any alternative. Remember, the "disruption" from the robot revolution, will be cheaper robots taking over human jobs. Every replaced job means more profits, most of which will go to the wealthiest technological companies. It is up to each nation, but higher corporate profits are an opportunity for new tax revenues to cover the cost of the UBI. Likewise, that same increase in efficiency simultaneously lowers the cost of goods and services that all citizens purchase. More potential tax revenue and a lower cost of living reduce the financial impact of implementing a thoughtful and effective UBI.

Copyright 2016.-Valerian Texeira

Revised on 19-3-2017 (India time)
Email: texeiraval@gmail.com